Influence of the Sun on the Course of Political Events on Earth
For the first time this topic was considered by me in an article published in the Postup newspaper on January 16, 1998. Later there were new similar publications, which few people paid attention to. Here the theme continues, taking into account the political events of recent years.
They can be "magnetized" – the social surrounds them, acting as static electricity, but most of the time they form a "mass" in the literal sense of the word, in other words, they absorb and neutralize all the electricity of the social and political irrevocably… They do not radiate, but, on the contrary, they absorb all the radiation of the peripheral constellations of State, History, Culture, Meaning… The imagination of the masses seems to oscillate somewhere between passivity and unbridled spontaneity, but each time as potential energy, as a reserve of social and social activity: today they are a silent object, tomorrow when they take the floor and cease to be the "silent majority" – the main character of history. [BAUDRILLARD JEAN].
There are many mysterious events in the history of mankind, thinkers try to give them their explanations, but sometimes they admit their impotence:
A mass that suddenly appears where there was nothing before is a phenomenon as mysterious as it is universal. Let's say, several people were standing together, five, ten, at most twelve, no more. There were no announcements, no one expected anything. And suddenly everything is already black with people. They flock here from everywhere, as if the street traffic has become one-way. Many have no idea what happened, ask them about it – they will not be able to answer, and yet they rush to join the crowd. Their movement is characterized by a decisiveness that is by no means evidence of mere curiosity. It can be said that the movement of one is contagious for the other, but this is not the only thing: they have a goal. She appeared before they knew it: the goal is the blackest place, the place where the most people are gathered (CANETTI ELIAS. 1990, 392-393).
The history of mankind is a complex nonlinear process, a function of many variables that can change linearly, cyclically, spirally, oscillating, and randomly. One can consider a cyclical model of history, but it can be applied with certain reservations only to the socio-economic sphere and to material culture if by cyclicality one understands development in a spiral. We can agree that the history of culture as a whole reflects the civilizational process, but only its spiritual component can be used to predict the future. Short cycles worthy of study can be found in demographic and economic processes. The pioneers of the theory of cycles in these areas were Malthus and Ricardo, and currently, many Western scientists are working on this topic concerning the characteristics of the consumer society, which others are criticizing.
Cyclicality can also be seen in the behavior of the masses and, in particular, using the example of revolutionary events in Eastern Europe at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century. and especially on the frequency of the so-called “Maidans” in Ukraine. Eyewitnesses to the birth of Ukrainian Maidans will confirm the picture drawn by the philosopher, although their participants themselves will assure that some specific event brought them together. However, other similar events do not have such consequences, and this is the mystery of the Maidans as a special case of a mass movement. There is a reason for the emergence of Maidans, but it is not obvious and not even all philosophers see it, but everyone will agree that the Sun has a great influence on our behavior. For example, we don’t take an umbrella with us in sunny weather; in hot weather, we mostly drink beer but drink vodka when the sun’s rays go out or are completely absent. Many such examples can be given, but they will not give us a complete idea of how strong the influence of the Sun is on us. The sun's rays have a decisive influence on processes in living nature. Some scientists also see their influence on the course of the historical process:
The most important property of the worldsystems is the cyclic, pulsatory character of their vital functions. Any system goes through periods of growth and crises, many systems disappear for different reasons. The explanation of the similar rhythm can be found in ecology because, in this field, the existence of the animal population cycles was revealed long ago. However, scientists have not arrived at the common conclusion of the reasons for similar cycles. Even for many decades, the question has been discussed if there is a stable correlation between solar activity, climate variations, and the number of animals. Some authors believe that a similar rule can be observed in nature, while others protest against this point of view (KRADIN NIKOLAY N. 2013: 170).
However, on the Sun, as elsewhere, there are spots, the size and number of which determine the level of activity of the star, i.e. the power of the wide spectrum electromagnetic oscillations emitted by it, partially invisible to the eye. Activity is periodic and its maxima are repeated every 9-11 years, so it is impossible to accurately predict them, and this introduces additional uncertainty into our lives. As it turned out, during such highs, among other things, the people's psyche changes, they become overly excited, their behavior becomes much more active, with little controlled consciousness, and sometimes even aggressive.
If these activity influences extended only to sensitive individuals, it would be a small disaster. But, precisely, the trouble is that the excitement spreads to everyone and the people's masses begin to look for a way out of their excess energy. This fact was established in perfect form by Prof.Alexander Chizhevsky in 1915-19 based on a thorough study of statistical materials. In 1918 in Moscow and 1920 in Stockholm, he defended his doctoral dissertation "Study of the periodicity of the world-historical process", in which he showed how strongly solar activity affects the social behavior of people. As one example of such a connection, he cited the fact that in February 1917 the appearance of a large sunspot on the Sun led to immediate perturbation in the lower classes of the population of Petrograd and the beginning of revolutionary events in this and subsequent years. The history of Europe is rich in all sorts of revolutions and uprisings. In the 18-19th centuries uprisings in Poland followed one after another. Polish historians carefully studied their reasons and came to the following conclusion:
Sometimes the uprising does not presuppose any thought, nor any cold political calculation, but is only a reflex, a last impulse, as, for example, in the Warsaw Ghetto in 1943. Was any political opinion required for this uprising? Would this uprising be disavowed by its absence, by this reflex? (NOWAK ANDRZEJ. 2016: 21).
In 1943, there was no maximum solar activity, so the role of the Sun on people's behavior is not absolute. Probably, other facts contradict Chizhevsky's discovery. Although it could not go unnoticed in the scientific world, the conclusion of Chizhevsky did not have a wide response due to mistrust. His works were published both in the Soviet Union and abroad, in particular, the monograph "The Earth's Response to Solar Storms" was published in French, Bulgarian, and twice in Russian [CHIZHEVSKY. 1976]. However, there were few concrete examples of the influence of the Sun on the course of world history and nothing was said about the possibility of predicting mass perturbations during periods of solar activity in the future. In the Soviet Union, such forecasts would have contradicted Marxist-Leninist theory, but it is not heard that anyone in the West is doing this. We will make such an attempt here, but first, we need to make sure that Chizhevsky's discovery is correct. To do this, we compare the available graphs of the behavior of the Sun with the chronological tables of world history.
As it turned out, riots do not occur with every solar activity and not in all countries of the world at the same time, although there were such years when revolutions and uprisings took place almost everywhere in Europe. As an example, we can cite the well-known in Ukraine in 1648, when riots also swept across Europe, and 1848, known as the “Spring of Nations”. Another example would be St. Bartholomew's Night in 1572 in Paris. Having begun as a reprisal against the Huguenots, it continued with the revelry of the poor for three more days, indiscriminately of religion. The criteria would be the personal relationships and property status of the victims. In the same year, there was an outbreak of the Oprichnina in Russia, and Herfog Norfolk, who had prepared a failed uprising against the ringleader Elizabeth I, was executed. Nevertheless, there are people, among whom the majority are balanced and insensitive to external influences, and there are people with overly emotional personalities predominate. It's genetics and maybe. as well as the level of cultural development.
Some comparisons are given below, but it should be noted in advance that for the emergence of a revolutionary situation, as the theoretician and practitioner of revolutions Lenin pointed out, three conditions are necessary: 1) a crisis of the "tops", 2) an aggravation of the needs and calamities of the people, 3) a significant increase in the activity of the masses (LENIN V.I. 1969, vol. 2^ 218). However, Lenin could not foresee the increase in the activity of the masses, although, indeed, the real reasons for all kinds of revolutions, uprisings, mass rallies, and other extraordinary events were people's dissatisfaction with their socio-economic situation. Only reasons for a certain discontent always exist, and people rise to protest only when solar activity prompts them to move from humble patience to decisive action. At the same time, the degree of their activity is influenced by the Tocqueville effect (paradox). In a broad sense, it lies in the fact that the beginning of the elimination of the cause of discontent entails an intensification of the protest movement. Figuragno says, “appetite comes with eating.” This is from the field of psychology and explains the avalanche-like development of revolutions. Such violent outbursts of protest sometimes occur incomprehensible to contemporaries and unexpected for "professional" revolutionaries, as was the case, for example, with the February Revolution in Russia. In fact, it was started by expansive housewives, outraged that, due to someone's negligence, bread was not brought to the shops, and drunken Baltic sailors, to whom the sea was knee-deep, gladly supported them. Of course, the crisis of the autocracy in Russia had existed for a long time and the "tops" understood this, but all that was needed was a spark from which a flame ignited. The same paradox explains the lack of perturbation in socially stable states, in which reforms are carried out gradually and have virtually no effect on the mood in society. In such cases, they are not affected also by solar activity.
With all this in mind, let's compare solar activity charts with the chronology of revolutions and uprisings. Readers themselves can supplement the facts of coincidences provided below, since, due to lack of space in a short publication and due to insufficient knowledge of history by the author, they are probably not all presented..
Let's start with the maximum solar activity in the years 1771-1772. During this period, Koliivshchyna swept through Ukraine, in Poland, the Bar Confederation waged a guerrilla war against Russia (1768), and the Pugachev uprising began in Russia. (1773-1774 )
During the next maximum, relative calm reigned in Europe, but in America, as it approached, the war of independence began in the English colonies and continued while the storms on the Sun continued (1776 -1783).
The Great French Revolution reacted to solar activity in a timely manner, but it was started by rich lawyers, not hungry peasants. However, the awakened masses could not calm down for many more years (1789-1794). In 1794, the Kosciuszko Uprising broke out in Poland.
The next two solar cycles were relatively quiet, but at the maximum of 1830, a new revolution broke out in France, the so-called July Revolution. In 1830-1831 – the November Uprising in Poland.
The next maximum occurred faster than usual, and during it, it seems, nothing special happened, but the maximum of 1848 turned the whole of Europe into a real steam boiler when revolutions in Italy, France, Germany, Austria, and Hungary raged simultaneously. True, it was quiet in Russia, she was still waiting in the wings.
In the next hundred years, during the maxima of solar activity, the following events can be noted:
1860 – the beginning of the Garibaldi uprising in Italy and the war in subsequent years, in 1861 – eleven US states declared their secession, which provoked a civil war. 1863 – January Uprising in Poland.
1871 – the explosion of another revolution in France, the Paris Commune.
1905 – the first revolution in R
1917-1918 – the second revolution in Russia, as well as revolutions in Germany, and Austria-Hungary.
Solar cycle 15 and revolution in Russia.
1938–1939 гг. – Germany's aggressive policy against its neighbors, the beginning of the Second World War. This is not a revolution or an uprising, but the great excitement in German society probably contributed to the adventures of the "possessed one."
Recent events of the second half of the 20th century confirm the connection of revolutionary events with solar activity maxima very well:
1956 – the revolution in Hungary, workers' uprising in Poznań
1968 – the revolution in Czechoslovakia; mass unrest of youth and students, a general strike in France, student uprising in Poland
1980–1982 – revolutionary events in Poland,
1990-1991 – revolutionary events throughout Eastern Europe that led to the collapse of the USSR.
Solar cycle 22 and "Carnival of revolutions" in Europe.
2001–2003 гг. – a series of high-profile terrorist attacks (USA – September 11, 2001, Russia – Dubrovka, Rizhskaya metro station, etc.), wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Orange Revolution in Ukraine began with the decline in solar activity and therefore, did not have a distinct aggressive character.
We will dwell on the events in Ukraine associated with the last maximum of solar activity in more detail. To illustrate, let's use the data on the behavior of the Sun published by the relevant NASA services (see the plot in artistic form below).
From the presented figure, it can be seen that the maximum solar activity was predicted by scientists for the winter of 2013-14, and before that it was useless to hope for violent mass protests. Nevertheless, Yulia Timoshenko, obviously unfamiliar with astronomical phenomena, threatened the authorities that tens of thousands of people would rise to her defense. But this did not happen – during her persecution, "the people were silent", these words of Pushkin just ask for a text.
In 2012, solar activity began to grow somewhat prematurely, but the process quickly stopped and at the beginning of 2013 it was rather low and even began to subside. However, it was precisely at this time that the opposition leaders showed determination and declared that they would "raise the people" to overthrow the existing government in a revolutionary way. A series of mass actions in different cities of Ukraine was planned and started to be carried out. Rallies gathered only 4-5 thousand people and even less. The number is simply ridiculous, given the events of the winter of 2013-14. Thus, the people did not support the initiative, although the level of discontent in society was high. People remained quite calm, just like the Sun.
After such failures, the opposition seems to have calmed down and lost hope for mass support for its anti-government events. However, in November, the Sun unexpectedly provided a surprise – it sharply increased its activity, and, accordingly, a vague fermentation began among the masses, then excitement, and here an opportunity presented itself in the face of the unsuccessful "Euro-integrator" Mr. Yanukovych. The energy of the masses began to splash out and we saw how Lviv students were the first to perform, as if entertainment. However, the undertaking took on a serious character in Kyiv, where a new Maidan began. It is difficult to say how events would have developed further if there had not been a beating of students on the night of the first of December. The investigators searched for a long time and really could not find who gave the order to beat people, but the order might not have been. The sun excites law enforcement officers just as much as ordinary protesters. An armed person (even with a club!) is always dangerous, in stressful situations, he can very easily lose his calm and resort to violence without any order from above, only under the influence of excessive energy received from the Sun. It is clear that the unreasonable beating of innocent people caused even greater anger and we became witnesses of an extremely massive process. Eyewitnesses of these events unanimously assert that an atmosphere of some kind of general excitement reigned in Kyiv at that time.
Seizures of administrative buildings began in the capital, and authorities lost control over the situation, in the destabilization of which Russia was interested. Provocations and incitement to violence began. It all ended with the flight of Yanukovych, the loss of Crimea, and part of the Donbas. When the Sun calmed down a bit, the outbreak of war began to subside and a period of sober reflection began on what had happened. However, no one uttered a word about the role of solar activity.
Afterword
Solar cycle 24-25 and the expectation of a new revolution.
Even though the question of the influence of solar activity on the political activity of people was raised almost a hundred years ago, both scientists and politicians were skeptical about it. In practice, few people know about such a feature of the Sun. While the cyclical nature of solar activity makes it possible to predict the course of political events, politicians and political scientists do not take into account the possibility of the Sun intervening during political events. True, in the 1990s, the Communist leader Zyuganov once publicly boasted that during the next maximum solar activity, the Communists would regain power in Russia. His prediction did not come true, because not only the Sun influences the political activity of people. The example of my forecast about the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union can clearly show under what conditions one can assume the indignation of the masses, which can lead to large-scale socio-political transformations.
During my student days, the British and French empires collapsed one after another, and the Spanish and Portuguese collapsed long before that. Realizing the colonial nature of the USSR, I was sure that this empire would someday collapse. Additional confidence in this gave me an understanding of the utopian nature of the communist idea and the failure of the system to solve economic problems, which was clearly reflected in the constant increase in the shortage of consumer goods in the domestic market. When Mikhail Gorbachev declared the need for restructuring in the state, it became clear that things were really bad. The next steps, albeit timid, towards the democratization of society set in motion the most active part of it, and then events developed like an avalanche. Under such conditions, I was sure that at the next maximum of the Sun, Union would fall apart. And so it happened.
Now it surprises me when leading politicians say that no one could have foreseen the collapse of the Union, and the example of US President Bush, who a month before the collapse called for its preservation, confirms that no one really expected such a development of events. This fact, as well as others, shows that world politics is conducted by archaic methods, without taking into account historical patterns and, moreover, without taking into account the possibility of the impact of irrational factors.
The above examples of the connection between solar activity and events on Earth are striking, but each theory is valid only when it not only explains the causes of known phenomena, facts or events but also suggests the emergence of new ones. For example, the periodic system makes it possible to predict the appearance of new chemical elements. Now there is a lot of talk about the imminent collapse of Russia, which could repeat the fate of the Soviet Union. This is how it should be because Russia has the same colonial character. The rest of the reasons for the collapse stem from this basic one. But when will this happen? This is possible when the anger of the masses begins in Russia. Such a disturbance is influenced by a variety of reasons It is difficult to predict it, but if it begins when approaching the next maximum solar activity, then it will gradually gain strength and can lead to great socio-political transformations. The next maximum solar activity will take place in 2024. Only then is the expected collapse of Russia possible. This will happen if world politicians again do not make efforts to preserve the existence of this monster.
The events in Belarus in summer-autumn 2020 seem to contradict the existence of a connection between solar activity and political events since the activity of the Sun during this period was low. But, perhaps, they confirm such a possibility, because the demonstrations were peaceful in nature, there were no manifestations of unbridled spontaneity in people's behavior. In Ukraine, meanwhile, everything is calm, although the reason for the revolution here is no less than in Belarus. The next maximum will give the answer.
Russia's attack on Ukraine testifies to the political crisis in Russia. There was no military threat to her. This is evidenced by the nature of the outbreak of the war. NATO's support for Ukraine is minimal and unwilling to destroy Russia. The actions of the West are aimed at its economic weakening, which will entail political reforms. Even Japan, which could seize the moment and regain the Kuriles by military means, does not want to do this, counting only on economic sanctions. The war, regardless of its outcome, will weaken both countries, so the discontent of the population will grow here and there and everything will end with new upheavals.
However, the nature of Russia's warfare is changing attitudes towards it in the West. Gradually, an understanding is coming that it will be a shame for the whole world if it leaves behind the occupied territories of Ukraine after the war. There is already talk of the need to reform the entire world political system. You can be sure that Russia is doomed to defeat. Such a shock is difficult to survive even in calm times, and during solar activity, the excitement of the masses will reach such a level that the very existence of the Russian state in its current form will be in question. It can be assumed that in Russia the same situation will repeat itself after the defeat in the Russo-Japanese war and the ensuing revolution, which no one prepared for. There are reasonable people in Russia who will make efforts to force the government to withdraw all troops from the territory of Ukraine in the very near future. Otherwise, in a year and a half, chaos will begin in Russia, which will destroy the country.
According to NASA, the Sun behaved unusually at the turn of 2023-2024, so there was uncertainty about its future behavior. However, NASA specialists revised their preliminary calculations because the Sun's activity increased sharply in May (see the graphs above and below). In June, the star's activity fell slightly, and in July it increased again. It can be assumed that the maximum solar activity has arrived. Theoretically, the reaction on Earth should not slow down. The international situation is very tense, some kind of denouement should occur. It is impossible to foresee what it will be because no dangerous disturbance has been observed among the masses.
The Space Environments Team in the Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle predictions for NASA engineering programs and the aerospace community.
The purpose of the predictions is to provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, the F10.7 and Ap are required inputs to upper atmosphere (thermosphere) density computer models used for spacecraft operations such as orbital lifetime analysis and for the planning of future spacecraft missions.
Each month the solar prediction is updated using historical and the latest month’s observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle and the next. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with the 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. The F10.7 prediction also includes a 75 percentile value.
The estimation technique is used to predict the remaining of the current cycle, but it is not able to predict the next solar cycle at this time. However, for engineering applications and mission planning, an extended forecast for the next solar cycle is given below. The values shown for the next cycle are those of a mean cycle obtained from averaging previous cycles of 13-month smoothed indices along with the calculated statistical bounds.
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